Uncovering the Attribution Mirage: How to See Past Brand and Media Confusion

You know that feeling when your analytics dashboard shows Google Ads driving loads of conversions, so you double your ad spend, only to see diminishing returns? Welcome to the attribution mirage.

Here's what's really happening: someone reads a blog post about your product, maybe from a newsletter or social media. They don't sign up straight away. Instead, they search for your brand name later and click on your Google Ad. Your analytics cheerfully reports this as a "Google Ads conversion."

But Google Ads didn't really drive that conversion – it was just the last stop on a longer journey.

The real customer journey

Let's say you're PostHog (a product analytics company). A potential user might:

• Read an article about product analytics in a newsletter

• Remember your name a few days later

• Search "posthog" on Google

• Click your ad because it's at the top

• Sign up

Your UTM parameters will tell you this user came from Google Ads. But the newsletter article was what actually introduced them to your product. You might conclude "Google Ads are brilliant!" when the real driver was your content marketing.

This happens constantly. People rarely convert on their first touchpoint. They research, compare, think it over, then come back through a different channel – usually search.

A simple counter-strategy

The fix isn't perfect, but it's surprisingly effective: just ask.

Add a simple dropdown or text box to your signup form: "Where did you first hear about us?"

This gives you data that UTM tracking can't capture. You'll discover:

• That podcast mention actually drove way more signups than you thought

• Your best customers often come from word-of-mouth referrals that look like direct traffic

• Some channels you're heavily investing in aren't working as well as the data suggests

Why this works

People generally remember where they first encountered your brand, even if they converted through a different channel later. When PostHog implemented this, they found loads of unexpected sources driving real value – sources that would have been invisible in their standard analytics.

Sure, some people won't remember accurately, and others might not fill it out at all. But you'll get enough signal to spot patterns and make better decisions about where to focus your marketing efforts.

The bigger picture

Attribution has always been messy, but it's getting messier. With iOS privacy changes, cookie restrictions, and longer buying cycles, first-click and last-click attribution are becoming less reliable.

The "where did you hear about us" approach isn't a silver bullet, but it's a reality check against your analytics. Use both data sources together. When they align, you can be more confident. When they don't, dig deeper.

Your marketing mix is probably more complex than your dashboards suggest. Sometimes the best way to understand it is simply to ask your customers directly.

Growth Method is the GrowthOS built for marketing teams focused on pipeline — not projects. Book a call at https://cal.com/stuartb/30min.

"We are on-track to deliver a 43% increase in inbound leads this year. There is no doubt the adoption of Growth Method is the primary driver behind these results."

Laura Perrott, Colt Technology Services